Extensive new polling of constituencies up and down the UK indicates that overhauling how our homes are taxed “holds the key” to the Conservatives or Labour winning over ‘Red Wall’ seats at the next election.

A poll of 4,000 people conducted by JL Partners for the Fairer Share campaign group reveals widespread support for replacing Council Tax and Stamp Duty with a Proportional Property Tax (PPT) which would be levied on the current value of properties rather than on 1991 levels. Such a move could lead to bills falling for 77% of the country, with the average household likely to be £556 a year better off.  

The polling, which included MRP modelling, looked at the impact the policy could have on vote share in every single constituency in the UK. The results show how, with all things being equal, a Proportional Property Tax could be a ‘game changer’ at the next election.

Key findings include:

  • Were Labour to introduce a PPT, the policy could help the party gain as many as 52 seats including 43 in the so called ‘Red Wall’. They could also make gains in Scotland and would see their vote share increase among swing voters by net 15%.
  • Were the Conservatives to back the policy, their share of swing voters would increase markedly with 41% of undecideds more likely to lend their support to the party. Replacing Council Tax could see them gain as many as 60 seats in the next general election compared to their current position and hold on to the majority of Red Wall seats they won in 2019.

 

Blue = Conservative Red = Labour Orange = Liberal Democrat Yellow = SNP

 

With Council Tax bills expected to rise across the country for many households from April, the research also highlights how reform of the way property is taxed is supported by every single constituency in England:

  • Nationally, voters back the policy by over 3:1 (52% versus 17%). It is even more popular with voters in the North who support it by 9:1 (61% versus 7%).
  • Support is highest among people living in lower value homes in the North and the Midlands who would benefit the most from significantly lower bills.
  • The tipping point at which someone is likely to oppose the policy is when they live in a home worth £500,000 or more. Given the average house in the country costs £269,000 the policy is clearly popular across the board.
  • Support falls to 41% in areas such as Islington where the average price of a home is £839,000. However, there is still net support for the introduction of a Proportional Property Tax.

 

 

Blue = Support Red = Oppose

 

Fairer Share argues that a Proportional Property Tax introduced at a flat rate of 0.48% on the value of a property would raise a surplus of £5.6billion for HM Treasury and is a way for the Government to overhaul a deeply regressive and unfair system. The policy also includes a surcharge for second homeowners and foreign owners of UK property, proceeds of which (£4.5 billion) have been used to lower bills for low and middle-income households up and down the country. 

Findings from the polling add to the growing pressure for change with leading politicians from across the political spectrum publicly supporting calls for change including a number of MPs in Red Wall seats.

What has been said about the research?

 

Andrew Dixon, Chairman of Fairer Share, said:

“People up and down the UK are sick to the back teeth of council tax. They overwhelmingly want a fairer system in its place that reflects the true value of their homes. Our polling shows just how strong that feeling is and how reforming our property taxes holds the key to success at the next general election.

“Were Labour to replace council tax they could gain millions of votes and potentially win over significant numbers of swing seats, most notably in Scotland and across the Red Wall. The Conservatives love to say they reflect the ‘will of the people’. Yet they appear to be tone deaf to the economic and political benefits of a proportional property tax. 

“The reality is that it is time to bring our property taxes into the 21st century and backing a system of proportional property tax should be a no brainer for both Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer. 

My question to both leaders is what other tax reform eases the cost-of-living crisis for hard-working families, provides a £5.6 billion surplus for HM Treasury and delivers countless key seats for Labour or the Conservatives at the next general election?”

James Johnson, founder of JL Partners and former head of polling at Downing Street said:

“Both parties currently sit in a quagmire. The Conservatives are falling behind Labour in the polls, while Labour is still not trusted enough to win convincingly. This research shows that a proportional property tax could well be the way for either party to convince the electorate they are the party for them.

Rarely do individual policies move the dial as much as this one does: it is highly popular with swing voters, and our modelling shows that it can bolster Conservative and Labour support – depending on who backed it – in the North and the Midlands but also across the country.”

John Stevenson, Deputy Chairman of the Northern Research Group and MP for Carlisle:

“If the Conservative Party wants to deliver for voters and retain the ‘red wall’ seats that we won at the last general election then making our property taxes fairer is one of the ways to do it.

We can now see clearly that voters in many marginal constituencies and others are overwhelmingly in favour of scrapping Council Tax. In its place they want a system of proportional property tax that would mean lower bills for the majority of households up and down the country.”

Aaron Bell, MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme:

“This polling confirms something that I have long suspected. Abolishing council tax and stamp duty and replacing them with a fairer property tax is the right thing to do for millions of people up and down the country. And, with voters across the UK backing a proportional property tax by over three to one, I believe it is also the right thing for the Conservative Party, helping secure for the long-term the support of those voters who switched to us in 2019.”

Simon Fell, MP for Barrow and Furness:

“Now we know that the majority of people in constituencies up and down the UK want a simpler and fairer property tax system, there is no excuse for politicians not to deliver. Rather than sticking with an unjust and outdated council tax system, my party should go into the next general election promising voters a modern and progressive proportional property tax.

This much-needed reform would lift a disproportionate burden from young people while delivering lower bills for millions of hard-pressed households across the country.”

Dame Margaret Hodge, MP for Barking:

“Our existing system of property taxation in the UK is deeply flawed and highly regressive. Now we can see that voters overwhelmingly want a fairer system, we urgently need to have serious debate about delivering exactly that. 

As the Government preside over a cost-of-living crisis and we head into a spring of tax hikes and soaring prices, there is a stronger case than ever for looking closely at a proportional property tax which would result in permanently lower bills for most households with no cost to taxpayers.“

Dan Carden, MP for Liverpool Walton:

“Standing by an outdated and unfair system of property taxation is a betrayal to millions of households across the country. Regressive Council Tax hikes alongside a brutal cost of living crisis mean many across the country, especially the poorest households and people in the North, will suffer and struggle to make ends meet.

Not only would replacing Council Tax and Stamp Duty with a more progressive system help struggling families in communities like mine, but it has the support of voters across the country who want to see change.”

Grahame Morris, MP for Easington:

“The Government must stop talking about levelling up and start acting. Council Tax is a grossly unfair and disproportionate tax holding back our regions. Proportional Property Tax is a simple, efficient, and effective means of generating revenues, supporting families, and easing the cost of living.

A Proportional Property Tax would help level up the UK and reduce the economic divide that has persisted in our country for generations. The policy has widespread public support and growing political support; it is time for change.”